Most bettors focus on the short-term winnings from each individual bet. However, those who take their betting seriously think about their wagers in terms of maths. That’s why their understanding of the concept of expected value is so important to how betting decisions are made.
In this article, we’ll explain what expected value (EV) is and how it can help bettors make profitable decisions in the long run. This doesn’t mean winning every bet they make, but it does allow for more control over their betting process.
What is the Expected Value?
Expected value is a mathematical concept used to calculate the average amount a bettor will win or lose per bet if the bets are made under the same conditions. This means that it can be used to predict such outcomes for most of the games provided by the best Bitcoin casinos. For instance, it works for both sports bets and games of luck.
The formula:
EV = (Probability of Win × Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Loss × Amount Lost per Bet)
For example:
If you flip a coin and bet £10 that it will land on heads – the probability of win and loss is 0.5
EV = (0.5 x 10) – (0.5 X 10) = £5-£5 =0.
The expected value is zero because, in the long run, you’ll always have an equal number of heads and tails. When betting in a casino, you want a positive EV.
Why does EV matter?
Those who bet small amounts and do it for the fun of it don’t need to have a mathematical approach to betting – they will win some and lose some. However, those who bet large amounts and do it somewhat professionally need to have better control over their chances.
Novice bettors will also often think about betting in terms of streaks. This can go in one of two ways. If their streak of wins is good, they’ll continue to make wagers, and some will stop when things are good so as not to test their luck.
However, if you consistently make bets with positive EVs, you’ll end up with a profit, regardless of the streaks that may form along the way. Knowing those chances can, therefore, inform the decisions in the long run. The same goes for negative EV wagers.
How to Build a Long-Term Strategy by Using EVs
Just knowing what EV is and how it works isn’t enough to create a strategy based on it. In order to do so, the bettor should also take steps to create a strategy and correct it when it needs to be corrected by the events on the field.
Track Everything
The first step towards building a betting strategy using EV as a metric is to keep track of every bet. This includes the amount that you’ve wagered, the odds of winning, and profits gained if there were any. It’s equally important to keep track of the losses.
Crypto betting casinos provide a betting history, which makes it easy to get this data, but organising and understanding it is on the bettors. Depending on the amount and complexity of the bets, this can be a somewhat demanding tax.
Manage Your Bankroll
Bets based on EVs focus on the long run but can still end up with losses in the short and medium term. Therefore, it’s essential for a player to manage their bankroll as they would for any other bet. This means having smaller bets, rather than one risky one, as well as setting up a limit at which they should stop betting for a while.
Most casinos have tools allowing players to do so using their own interface, but players who have specific needs could do so on their own.
Shop Around for Odds
Different sportsbooks offer different odds for the same events. These usually differ by small amounts, but they tend to add up when betting on a lot of events, which is what bettors using EVs will do. It pays off to shop around for the odds that better suit your strategy.
Many sports betting sites also have special offers for big games, rivalries, or big events such as world championships or the Olympics. These, too, are worth checking out and using when applicable to a broader strategy.
Focus on Volume of Bets
The best way to make sure that the outcomes match the calculations you’ve made is to make as many wagers as possible. EV is used for a long-term strategy, and that’s when it shows its results best.
For most, if not all, players, this means that the individual wagers are smaller in the amount placed so that they can stretch their budget on as many bets as possible. Immediate huge profits, therefore, can’t be a goal of such an approach.
Stay on Track
Betting strategies, such as those based on EV calculations, take a long time to develop and produce results. This also includes dips and rises in the results and profits. It can lead players to make mistakes and grow impatient with the plan.
It’s important to stay on track even with these frustrations since that’s the only way for the strategy to produce results based on the calculations made beforehand.
Common Mistakes to Avoid When Using EVs
There are a few mistakes bettors commonly make when relying on expected value to inform their bets. These are common as using a strategy isn’t always intuitive, and undisciplined players tend to fall back on their institution instead of keeping up with the strategy. By being aware of this problem, the bettors can fight against it.
Ignoring the Numbers
Players often end up ignoring the numbers even though they’ve gone through the process of calculating the EV. This is because they have a gut feeling about an individual bet, usually a sports bet. There’s a chance they can be right, especially with experienced bettors, but they can just as often be wrong. It’s a matter of discipline to stick to the plan no matter what.
Chasing Losses
Another common mistake is changing the strategy after a loss and chasing losses with larger and riskier bets in order to make up for it. Regardless of how tempting it may be to do so, bettors shouldn’t indulge in this behaviour. Most crypto-betting casinos have an interface put in place to lock the player out of the game for a while, and if it’s necessary, players should use it.
Overbetting on Sure Things
Bets with small and certain odds can also be tempting. Players can wager large amounts on such bets and leverage the amount to gain small but almost certain gains. This, too, is a mistake since the keyword is “almost.” Every once in a while, surprises do happen, and it’s possible to lose all of the leverage.
To Summarize
- Instead of relying on luck and guessing when making wagers, those who bet professionally use mathematics and statistics to inform their betting decisions.
- One of the ways this is done is via a formula called expected value.
- It calculates the average amount a bettor will win or lose per bet if the circumstances of the bets are the same.
- Once a player has used the formula to inform their decision-making, they should devise a strategy and stick it to when making individual wagers.
