Over 4.5 Goals Betting Market Explained – High Scoring Guide

Written By: Conor Rafter
Last Updated: May 23, 2024

Most football matches have a maximum of up to four goals, with common scorelines including 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 and 2-2. As a result, the prices for markets like ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ and ‘Under 3.5 Goals’ are often relatively poor.

With ‘Over 4.5 Goals’, winning bets are paid out handsomely. Very few bookies expect five or more goals to be scored within a single match, leading operators to publish high odds. This means you can make impressive profits from minuscule stakes; particularly if you enter a small stake (the amount you’re willing to bet). 

What Does Over 4.5 Goals Mean In Betting?

Over 4.5 goals is a football betting market. Bets placed on this market will win if there are 5 or more goals scored in the match. If the match ends with 4 or fewer goals, the bet will lose.

The opposite of this betting market is the under 4.5 goals betting market. The next “overs” betting market is the over 5.5 goals market, and the one below is the over 3.5 goals market.

Paddy Power’s Definition of Over 4.5 Goals

“You’re betting on how many goals there are in the game. So, ‘Over 4.5 Goals’ means you win if there are five or more, but loses if there are four or fewer.”

Paddy Power
Over 4.5 Goals Betting Market Explained - Paddy Power Definition
Paddy Power’s over/under betting market definition.

What Are Some Examples Of Over 4.5 Goals?

Some examples of winning scorelines for this type of bet can be found below.

  • 3-2
  • 4-1
  • 5-0

In each of these examples there are exactly five goals scored. Your bet will win if more than five goals are scored, too.

What are some example winning and losing over 4.5 goals bets?

Here’s a table with some example scorelines, the total goals in the match, and whether or not a bet on this match on over4.5 goals would win or lose.

Final ScoreTotal GoalsOver 4.5 Goals Bet Win or Lose
A table showing example scorelines, match total goals, and whether and over 4.5 goals bet on this match would win or lose.

What Is The Best betting strategy For Over 4.5 Goals Betting?

Betting on this market is easy as there are only two outcomes: a win or a loss. In addition, the lines between earning a profit and losing money are far from blurred. You need the match to have five or more goals to win. Any fewer and the bet loses.

Since the number of games that boast five goals or more is quite low, you need to be diligent when picking your selection. The only way to have confidence in your wager is to carry out research beforehand.

Thankfully, given that the market asks a lot of the match (five goals) there are just two all-important aspects you need to study. Take a look at the ability of both teams to score goals, as well as their defensive qualities.

Are Strong team attacks and weak team defences good for over 4.5 goals betting?

Betting on teams with a strong attack when they take on a weaker outfit is pretty much the only way to go with the ‘Over 4.5 Goals’ market. The more talented the team, the more likely they are to overawe the opposition and smash loads of goals past the defending goalkeeper. 

There are plenty of examples of this throughout recent history. Here are some instances in which the strong, dominant, attacking-centric team demolished a weaker opposing club.

  • Liverpool 9-0 Bournemouth – 2022/23
  • Manchester City 6-0 Nottingham Forest – 2022/23
  • Manchester United 9-0 Southampton – 2020/21
  • Chelsea 7-0 Norwich City – 2021/22
  • Tottenham Hotspur 9-1 Wigan Athletic – 2009/10

It’s worth noting that a number of high-scoring games have been played since the dawn of the 2010s. This is largely associated with a huge influx of cash from teams like Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool. These sides have sold players for high sums and bought talented individuals – even if some of them haven’t quite worked out as hoped. 

The result is a handful of performances where everything comes together. Even Manchester United, who have struggled to maintain momentum over the course of a full campaign, have participated in games where there were goals galore from their side.

Our advice is simple: bet on matches where there is a highly talented side taking on a smaller, weaker team.

What Are The Best Bookies & Odds For Over 4.5 Goals Bets?

A mantra we’ll continue to push is this: all bookmakers are different and there is no singular best bookie. You may have preferences, you might even swear by a bookie that has served you well for years. That makes that particular operator the best for your needs, but not necessarily everybody’s.

Admittedly, though, there are some bookmakers that excel in certain areas. Bet365 boasts a clean, easy-to-use interface. SkyBet throws free bets out every few weeks like nobody’s business. These are positives that can push a narrative that ties down one bookie as the best in a bettor’s mind. 

For the market ‘Over 4.5 Goals’, there are plenty of great bookmakers to choose from. Most bookies publish odds for this market early in the week, giving you ample time to conclude any research on your betting strategy. 

Here’s a quick list of our favourite sportsbooks when it comes to ‘Over 4.5 Goals’.

  • Paddy Power
  • SkyBet
  • Bet365
  • William Hill

To give you an idea of what to expect when you visit any of these four platforms, you’ll catch a glimpse of how the ‘Over 4.5 Goals’ market appears on each bookmaker’s website below.

Paddy Power – West Brom vs Burnley at 7.00 (6/1)

Over 4.5 Goals Betting Market Explained - Paddy Power West Brom vs Burnley at 7.00

SkyBet – Aston Villa vs Manchester City at 4.00 (3/1)

Over 4.5 Goals Betting Market - Aston Villa vs Manchester City at 4.00

Bet365 – Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim at 3.20 (11/5)

Over 4.5 Goals - Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim at 3.20

William Hill – Celtic vs Rangers at 5.00 (4/1)

Over 4.5 Goals - Celtic vs Rangers at 5.00

Over 4.5 Goals Terminology

It can be difficult to get your head around a brand new betting market, especially if you’re unfamiliar with the betting scene. To help guide you through this highly rewarding bet type, we’ll break down each term in the market’s title. By the end of this section, you’ll know what the bet is asking of you and how to know when to use the market.

Starting from the beginning is always the easiest. In this case, the word ‘Over’ tells us that whatever it is we’re betting on, it must be ‘more than’ or ‘above’ a certain statistic. There are various ‘Over’ markets (shots, corners, etc), so it’s a good idea to become accustomed to this genre of wager if you plan on venturing deeper into the world of online football betting. 

Essentially, you need to know that, whatever the statistic, it must occur more times than what is listed on the bookie’s platform.

Moving onto the second part of the market’s title, we have a number with a decimal point: ‘4.5’. The decimal point is important to note as it prevents any possibility of a ‘push’ bet or a refund. This is because half goals are not possible in football. Therefore, the bookmaker chooses to round up to the next whole number. In this instance, the next whole number is five (5). 

Resultantly, your bet on this market wins if the number of goals scored within 90 minutes (unless stated otherwise) is equal to or exceeds five. 

And how do we know that the market covers ‘goals’ and not corners, shots on target, or bookings? The word ‘Goals’ comes directly after ‘Over 4.5’. This makes the phrase ‘Over 4.5 Goals’. 

What Are Goals in Football Betting?

Goals are the be-all and end-all in football. If a team struggles to score, they’ll find it difficult to keep their heads above water in the division. Should a side find that scoring goals comes easily, they’ll have a great chance at competing with other top teams at the summit of the league.

To score a goal, the attacking team must force the ball to cross the opposition goal line. The ball is not required to nestle in the back of the net – although this makes it easier to tell whether or not a goal has been scored. One point is credited to the attacking team each time the ball crosses the goal line. The more goals scored, the more likely a team is to win. 

You need the ball to cross the goal line at least five times to win a bet on ‘Over 4.5 Goals’.

What Are The Closest Betting Markets In Price To Over 4.5 Goals?

Conor Rafter
Conor Rafter

I’m a freelance writer who loves all things sports & betting related. Having worked in this field since 2018, I’ve experienced a wide range of intriguing bookmakers and online casinos. With this expertise, I strive to create helpful, honest articles. My primary goal is quite simple: to guide and inform readers using facts and analysis.

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