DAY 1 – TUESDAY 12TH MARCH – THE 2024 CHAMPION HURDLE
The feature race on Day 1 is The Champion Hurdle but every race fan has been rocked by the news on Nicky Henderson’s Constitution Hill who will miss out after a poor workout at Kempton where he was found to be a sick horse.
The Champion Hurdle has been won by some greats down the years, including Henderson’s own See You Then, who was a triple winner of the race in 1985, 1986 and 1987.
- 13:30 The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Race (Grade 1)
- 14:10 The My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase (Grade 1)
- 14:50 The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase (Premier Handicap) (Grade 3)
- 15:30 Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
- 16:10 Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
- 16:50 The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Race (Premier Handicap) (Grade 3)
- 17:30 The National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Steeple Chase) (Grade 2)
But, you are not here for my nostalgic writings of the past, you are here to see if we can help you pick some winners, so let’s get stuck into the action and our Cheltenham Festival Preview Day 1.
13:30 THE Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The first race of the day is Supreme Novice Hurdle, and if you looked at our 2024 Cheltenham Festival Preview page, you would have seen that we earmarked three horses at the end of January that were well fancied in the betting.
Once the final declarations are announced, hopefully, our expert Richard Smith can point you in the way of a winner or two over today’s seven-race card.
Until the decs are out, Richard has been studying and building out a longlist of candidates which include Brighterdaysahead, Dysart Enos, Mystical Power, Firefox, and a likely big price outsider in Jimmy De Seiul.
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
FORM PICK
Its not a big field this year in the Supreme but what it lacks for in quantity is certainly made up for in quality.
There is no doubt that Tullyhill 3/1 is a deserving favourite, and the Irish money will be down for sure.
Nicky Henderson saddles the unbeaten Jeriko Du Reponet 7/1 and he has been very impressive in three starts to date he will be on plenty of people’s radar for this one.
However, we are going straight in with huge each-way play and that is KINGS HILL 80/1 EW and this one could well be in the shake-up. An improving type who finished just midfield on debut before a very promising 4th of 28 at Leopardstown when a 50/1 shot, and he stepped forward to land the odds next time in what was an ordinary maiden hurdle.
Yes, he needs to take another big step forward but that is what he has done so far in three starts and could be underestimated.
We’ll also be pointing you in the way of a favourite trixie or patent And for those of you who like each-way betting, then you might want to look at a combination bet. Check out how a Lucky 63 works as it gives you singles and multiples all in one bet.
14:10 The My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase (Grade 1)
The second race of the day is the Arkle Challenge Trophy, named after the legendary multiple Gold Cup winner of the sixties. If you looked at our 2024 Cheltenham Festival Preview page, you would have seen that we earmarked a few horses at the end of January that were well-fancied in the betting.
Final declaration time is on Sunday 12th March, and our expert Richard Smith will be picking diligently through the form to try and point you in the way of the winner for this race.
He has already picked out a shortlist including Djelo, Gaelic Warrior, Marine Nationale, and the old boy Sharjah.
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
FORM PICK
This years Arkle is an open race and we have the one-two from the Irish Arkle last month, Il Etait Temps 4/1 and Found A Fifty 9/2 who both hold strong chances in this.
However, the pick is GAELIC WARRIOR 100/30 WIN who blotted his copybook last time when unseating when well held, and that run was too bad to be true. He had always promised to make into a chaser and won his first two starts very impressively, inluding when beating Il Etait Temps by over 5 lengths in the Faugheen Novices Chase in December.
If he turns up in that form, then he’ll be very tough to beat.
14:50 The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase (Premier Handicap) (Grade 3)
The first big handicap of the meeting is the Ultima, which is run over a trip of just over three miles. If you checked out our 2023 Cheltenham Festival Preview page, you would have seen that we pinpointed three horses at the end of January that were well-fancied in the bookie’s betting lists.
On the Sunday before the meeting starts, we’ll be looking at the final declarations for this race and it sure is a competitive race. Hopefully, our expert can point you in the way of a nice each-way prospect at double-figure odds.
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
FORM PICK
The first handicap of the week and it’s the stamina test that really needs some getting.
One of the very well-fancied horses is Stumptown 8/1 and his chance is there for everyone to see with two outstanding runs already in the form book here at Cheltenham.
There are plenty standing in his way though and a couple of the shorter ones that the bookies have not missed are The Goffer 5/1 and Chianti Classico 6/1 and each of those look to have been laid out for this race, especially the former.
However, we like a bit of value here at Ontheballbets and the main pick is FOUND ON 50/1 EW whose form stands up to plenty of scrutiny. She won on her penultimate start from a mark of 135 and then stepped forward next time finishing second off today’s mark of 140 in a Listed mares race. She was 12 lengths clear of the third horse and if we have Good in the going description on Tuesday, that will only aid her chances.
With seven races on each day, it gives us the chance to place some of our single each-way bets into different types of combination bets so we could pick out four races and have an EW Yankee or Lucky 15, and if we wanted to go with all seven races we could do a Super Heinz.
15:30 Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
The feature race of the day is the Champion Hurdle and this promised to be one of the most exciting races of the season. However, the Nicky Henderson-trained Constitution Hill is now out of the race, and it is now left wide open for State Man to go one better than last year.
We’ll be looking at the final declarations once they are published and hopefully, our expert Richard Smith can point you in the way of one to take on State Man with as a value each way bet
Early signs are that the grey Irish Point could be some value against the favourite.
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
FORM PICK
Next up is the Champion Hurdle and in all honesty this looks a penalty kick for State Man 2/5, but he is not a working man price and the next in line is the improving Irish Point 9/2 who takes a drop in distance which may not suit. He has won over two miles but not against the likes of State Man.
This is more of a race to watch than to bet on, but for a small interest then NOT SO SLEEPY 20/1 EW should not be underestimated. He is joint second top rated with Irish Point so the disparity in price makes no sense. These two are clear of the rest on ratings so that rates a value bet.
16:10 Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The mares hurdle is a race that has seen some very talented winners, including dual Champion Hurdle winner Honeysuckle who won this race in 2020, and of course, the super-mare Quevega who won the race six times between 2009 and 2014.
If you looked at our 2023 Cheltenham Festival Preview page, you would have seen that we picked out three horses at the end of January that were strongly fancied in the betting.
Once the final declarations are posted in the racing press, our expert Richard Smith will be studying the form and trying to pick the winner of this year’s race.
Until then, Richard has already analysed a shortlist for the Mares Hurdle with Brighterdaysahead, Zenta and Love Envoi on his radar.
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
FORM PICK
Next up we have the mares hurdle and last year’s Triumph winner Lossiemouth 4/7 takes this easier assignment, and on all known form she should be very difficult top beat.
It looks a match between her and stablemate Ashroe Diamond 7/2 who we must remember promised to be something very special after winning the mares bumper at Aintree in 2022. She has been in strong form this season, taking a Grade 2 at Doncaste last time, and in the process beat another of today’s rivals Gala Marceau 16/1.
Love Envoi 16/1 was 9 lengths adrift of the favourite last time but this longer distance will suit and she is one for each way players.
However, at bigger prices LANTRY LADY 33/1 EW just cannot be dismissed. She is two from two, winning her maiden nearly a year ago to the day and then following up on last month’s reappearance. She has won her two races by a combined 23 1/2 lengths and falls into the “could be anything category”
16:50 The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Race (Premier Handicap) (Grade 3)
This is always a fantastic race and puzzle for punters to unravel. As this is a juvenile handicap, there is not much form to go on and many of these runners will probably have plenty of improvement to come. This race traditionally sees some big gambles, as there was last year with Gaelic Warrior who was sent off at 13/8 but could only manage second.
If you looked at our 2023 Cheltenham Festival Preview page, you would have seen that we earmarked three potential horses at the end of January for this event.
So once the final decs are posted, we’ll see if we can pick out a couple of juicy each-way options and try and point you in the direction of a combination tricast.
Our expert Richard Smith has already analysed the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle ten-year trends below. You can use these to make some informed decisions on what horses to pick. At the very least, it can help you whittle down this huge field to a manageable shortlist.
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
FORM PICK
Race 6 is the Boodles Juvenile Handicap and areal puzzle with so many under the radar. Top weight is the Paul Nicholls trained Liari 10/1 who is unbeaten in three starts since coming from France and is a deserved top weight. It would be no shock to see this one win but there are bound to be one or two lurking lower in the handicap that have not yet shown their hand.
The favourite is Jonjo O’Neill’s Milan Tino 5/1 and he has yet to finish out of the top 3, including when running very well against Friday’s Triumph Hurdler favourite here at Cheltenham last time. That is two placed efforts at Cheltenham in Class 1 events, and his chance is there for all to see.
At bigger prices then An Bradan Feasa 25/1 looks interesting, but the one we like is TEORIE 25/1 EW.
He is one of those unexposed horses who has won twice in three starts, and with the Fergal O’Brien/Paddy Brennan combo to be feared, he could just shock one or two of these better-fancied horses.
17:30 The National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Steeple Chase) (Grade 2)
The final race of the day is the marathon staying chase for amateur riders which is run over 3 miles and 6 furlongs. It’s a race that the big trainers target with horses that are not quite the standard required to win a Gold Cup.
Many trainers also use the race to see if they have a genuine contender for the following month’s Grand National at Aintree.
If you checked out our 2024 Cheltenham Festival Preview page, you would have seen that we chose three horses at the top of the betting that look to hold solid chances in this race.
When we look at the final declarations, hopefully, our expert Richard Smith can point you in the way of the winner. Until then, Richard has already built a preview shortlist including Cool Survivor, Henry’s Friend, and Kilbeg King.
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
FORM PICK
The last on the card is the National Hunt Chase and it is a disappointing turnout with just 7 runners.
Willie Mullins has Embassy Gardens 2/1 and he’ll be trying to beat nephew and Grand National winning trainer Emmet Mullins who has Corbetts Cross 13/8.
Both hold very solid chances, but the one who looks to have been crying out for this sort of stamina test is KILBEG KING 10/1 WIN.
He was just held by Henry’s Friend 14/1 last time, but the Honeyball runner gets the vote here.
CONCLUSION
A cracking day’s racing, and all eyes will be on State Man in the Champion Hurdle, who is looking to become a star of the future. It is a real shame that Constitution Hill is out, but Willie Mullins flying chestnut is a class act himself and will be a tough nut to crack.
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