CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL RACECARD – DAY 4 – FRIDAY 17th MARCH
The feature race on Day 4 and the culmination of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival is The Boodles Gold Cup, and what a race we have in prospect this time around.
The Blue Riband has seen some amazing performances down the years. Who can forget the mighty Arkle, and modern-day great Kauto Star. And who can forget the embrace between ex-jockey Terry Biddlecombe and his partner Henrietta Knight after Best Mate, another triple-winning Gold Cup hero came to prominence?
It’s an interesting day and one that in the past has produced some very big-priced winners, an ideal scenario for placing a Heinz or Lucky 63 on six races or going for the jackpot and placing a Super Heinz on seven races.
- 13:30 Jcb Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)
- 14:10 McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
- 14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle)
- 15:30 Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)
- 16:10 St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase
- 16:50 Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares’ Chase) (Grade 2)
- 17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
Just writing the names of these horses gets me tingling with excitement about what is to come at the Cotswold theatre of dreams,.But let’s shift from nostalgia to numbers, and get stuck into the form for this Cheltenham Festival Preview Day 4 analysis.
13:30 Jcb Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)
The first race of the day is The Triumph Hurdle, and if you checked out our 2023 Cheltenham Festival Preview page, you would have seen that we earmarked three horses at the end of January that were well fancied in the betting.
This is the race for four-year-olds and it is an important trial for the next year’s, Champion Hurdle. Vauban won this last year and he’ll have already run in the Champion Hurdle earlier in the week.
Once the final declarations are posted online, our tipping expert Richard Smith will be analysing the race to try and pinpoint a couple of value picks.
Until the decs are posted, Richard has already analysed the Triumph Hurdle ten-year trends below. So check those out, they should help you to build out a shortlist of fancies for the race.
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Bet365 Group Ltd / Hillside (New Media) Ltd
2000
Stoke-on-Trent
10 YEAR RACE TRENDS
Over the years it has not been easy to pick the winner of the Triumph Hurdle. Favourites have done reasonably well, but there have been a few shocks along the way as well.
Last year’s winning trainer will be well-fancied to have the winner again, but English trainers have a couple of good ones this year to do battle with the Irish, so we will have to see who shows up on the day.
So let’s check out the trends from the past ten years, and see if that can point us toward the winner.
- Only one filly has won the race in the last ten years.
- Eight of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse that had already run at least two times in the current campaign.
- Four of the last ten runnings have been won by the favourite.
- Six of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse no bigger than 9/2 in the betting.
- Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have both saddled two winners apiece in the last ten years
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
TRENDS PICK
Looking at the early entries, there are no real standouts on the trends, and for that reason, we do not have a trends pick for The Triumph Hurdle.
FORM PICK
Willie Mullins is mob handed here with Blood Destiny 6/4, Lossiemouth 7/4, and Gala Marceau 4/1 the top three in the betting.
But I like one at double-figure odds and that is the unbeaten ZENTA 12/1 EW who has won her sole start in a Grade 3 first time up and looks to have more to come. She gets a handy 7lbs from the boys here and fits into the “Could be anything” category and looks a bit of value as an each-way play.
14:10 McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
The second race of the day is The County Hurdle, one of the most competitive handicap hurdles of the week. Run over two miles, it is a speed test and always attracts a large field of runners.
Over the past few seasons, we have seen a couple of favourites successful, but more often than not, punters should be looking for double-figure prices. On our 2023 Cheltenham Festival Preview page, you would have seen that we earmarked three horses at the end of January that were well fancied in the betting.
Once the final declarations are published, we’ll be taking a deep dive into the form with our expert Richard Smith. He’ll be looking for some value each-way picks that might hit the frame, and he’ll try and point you in the direction of a combination tricast.
Until the decs are published, Richard has already analysed the ten-year trends for the County Hurdle below. One of the real interesting trends is the one based on handicap ratings. So check those out below.
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Petfre (Gibraltar) Limited
1967
5/2 Waterport Place, Gibraltar,
10 YEAR RACE TRENDS
Everybody loves picking a big price winner at the Cheltenham Festival and the County Hurdle is one race that has thrown up some big-priced winners over the years.
Recent winners include Mohaayed and Belfast Banter at 33/1 each and in 2008, legendary Irish trainer Tom Hogan saddle Silver Jaro to win at 50/1.
So let’s look at some of the trends from the past ten years and see if they pinpoint a big price outsider or one of the more fancied runners.
- Eight of the last ten winners have been five-year-olds (4 wins) or six-year-olds (4 wins).
- Trainer Dan Skelton has won the race three times in the last ten years.
- Only one of the last ten runnings has been won by a horse that had won more than once in the current season.
- Only three of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse lower than 10/1 in the betting.
- Six of the last ten winners have been rated between 137 to 141 (interesting trend)
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
TRENDS PICK
The final trends picks will appear here on Wednesday 15th March. Looking at the early entries, then we do not really have a stand-out. The one that is closest to the trends is PETIT TONNERRE from the Jonjo O’Neill yard.
FORM PICK
A fascinating entry, and SHARJAH 8/1 EW has had his recent form with State Man nicely franked by that ones run in the Champion Hurdle. Mullins is no stranger to putting his top-class horses in selective handicaps as he did with Arctic Fire a few years ago. Sharjah is in here off 155 which is a tough ask, yet he has probably run above that mark the last two times, and the handicapper has given him a real chance.
At a much bigger price, our second selection is HIGHWAY ONE O TWO 33/1 EW. This one finished a fine third behind Constitution Hill and Epatante in the Christmas Hurdle from a mark of 143 and probably ran right to that mark. Next time out he went to Newbury for the Betfair Hurdle where he was 16 lengths behind Acunrisque and he gave that rival 5 lbs and is now getting 4lb’s. Taking into account the 7 lb claimer on board and these two should dead heat.
The other big positives are his best form has been left-handed and over two and half miles.
14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle)
The appetiser before the main event is the staying hurdle for novice hurdlers and in past years has been for slightly lower-grade runners rated in the 140s.
This is a race that has definitely thrown up its fair share of shocks over the years, so looking for an unexposed and big-priced runner can pay dividends.
Our 2023 Cheltenham Festival Preview page earmarked three horses that were well fancied in the betting at the beginning of February, and once the final declarations are posted online, Richard Smith, our tipping expert will be looking to point you in the direction of a couple of each way plays for the race.
Before the decs are out, Richard has already analysed the Albert Bartlett ten-year trends below. So check those out, they might help you to build out a shortlist of fancies for the race. The trends in the number of runs in the current season are particularly interesting.
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William Hill PLC
1934
William Hill Global PLC, Tagliaferro Business Centre, Level 7, High Street, Sliema SLM 1549, Malta
10 YEAR RACE TRENDS
The Cheltenham Festival can be a difficult meeting to pick winners, and that has certainly been the case in the Albert Bartlett over the years.
Just four years back in 2019, the winner was a certain Minella Indo at 50/1 and of course, that one has gone on to win the Gold Cup and is back again in that race after finishing second last year behind stablemate A Plus Tard.
So let’s look at some of the trends from the past ten years that could help you to pick out yet another big-priced winner of this race.
- Five of the last ten winners have been six-year-olds.
- Trainer Willie Mullins has won the race three times in the last ten years with horses priced at 5/1, 16/1 and 18/1.
- Seven of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse that had run at least four times during the current season.
- Eight of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse bigger than 11/1 in the betting.
- Only one of the last ten winners has been rated at less than 140
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
TRENDS PICK
The final trends picks will appear here on Wednesday 15th March. Looking at these early entries, we can quickly narrow this down to just one horse and that is THREE CARD BRAG who was beaten in graded company before trouncing novices last time.
FORM PICK
This looks a very good renewal of this race, and the two we like against the field are Rock My Way 20/1 and Seabank Bistro 18/1.
It was a tough call to pick between the two but the narrow vote goes to SEABANK BISTRO 18/1 EW who won last time out after a couple of fine placed efforts over two miles and five furlongs. He looks a stayer, so it was to his credit that he managed to finish fourth in last season’s Champion Bumper, form which is top quality.
15:30 Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)
So we are final here, The feature of the week, The Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup and what a race we have in prospect. And just to whet your appetite, you can relive last year’s race which was won in scintillating style by A Plus Tard.
We still do not know if the reigning champ will make it to the race, but if he does, then he could still be the one to beat.
Once the final declarations are published we’ll get our expert Richard Smith to do a full analysis of each runner and give you his top picks for the race.
Until the decs are out, Richard has already analysed the Gold Cup ten-year trends below. So these out, as they might help you build out a longlist of fancies for the race.
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Bet365 Group Ltd / Hillside (New Media) Ltd
2000
Stoke-on-Trent
10 YEAR RACE TRENDS
A lot of the time, the Gold Cup is one of those races we just want to watch and enjoy without the need to bet and this year’s race is no different, but for those of you who will be trying to pick the winner, then the trends can actually give you a good starting point. This is also a good race to include with other single-digit fancies in a bet like a Yankee or Lucky 15.
So let’s check the trends for the 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup and see where it leads us.
- Seven of the last ten winners have been eight-year-olds.
- Only one jockey has won the race more than once in the last ten years and that was Paul Townend
- Four of the last ten runnings have been won by the favourite.
- Only two of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse bigger than 9/1 in the betting.
- Every single one of the last ten winners had been successful in Grade 1 company before taking this race.
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
TRENDS PICK
The trend lines are quite weak for this race with plenty of eight-year-olds in with chances. The one that stands out if any is BRAVEMANSGAME.
FORM PICK
This is one of the best Gold Cups for many years and it really centres around a couple of horses, and they are the pretender to the crown Galopin Des Champs and the reigning champion A Plus Tard.
Quite simply, if A Plus Tard shows up anywhere within 5 lbs of his rating then he will be tough to beat. However, his run in the Betfair Chase was abysmal, and we have not seen him since, so he gets a swerve based on those two points.
The selection is the Grand National winner NOBLE YEATS 8/1 WIN who has gone on from his Aintree victory to prove himself a high-class chaser over regulation fences. His run last time in the Cotswold Chase here at Cheltenham was an exceptional trial and he only really got going late on, and the extra two furlongs here are ideal.
16:10 St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase
It’s the turn of the amateur riders to take the spotlight for the St James Place-sponsored hunter chase, where we are once again sure to see last year’s first and second, Billaway and Winged Leader.
But they will not have it all their own way this year with some younger horses now coming through the ranks to lay down the gauntlet
Once we have the final declarations published, then we will be asking our expert Richard Smith (Who picked the second last year) to try and pinpoint a couple of key contenders for this year’s race.
Until the final decs are published online, Richard has already analysed the Hunter Chase ten-year trends below. These might help you to build out a shortlist of fancies for the race.
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Petfre (Gibraltar) Limited
1967
5/2 Waterport Place, Gibraltar,
10 YEAR RACE TRENDS
Trying to pick the winner of the Hunter Chase is not just about plonking your hard-earned money on the favourite. Down the years it has been proven that horses at huge prices are definitely in the hunt (no pun intended) for the prize, with favourites having won just four of the last ten runnings.
This year looks like a very open race, and the favourite Vaucelet will not have things all his own way, coming up against some proven and up-and-coming hunter-chasers.
So let’s look at the trends for this race from the past ten years.
- Eight of the last ten winners have been aged ten or eleven years old.
- Favourites have finished in the first four in eight of the last ten years.
- Only four of the last ten runnings have been won by the favourite.
- Six of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse bigger than 6/1 in the betting. Including four at double-figure odds.
- Eight of the last ten winners have been rated between 134 and 140
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
TRENDS PICK
The final trends picks will appear here on Wednesday 15th March. Looking at the early entries, Billaway, Dubai Quest and Not That Fuisse. The first two are fully exposed and have no secrets, but NOT THAT FUISSE may be the one that fares best.
FORM PICK
We have a super field for the Hunters Chase and plenty in with chances, including last years first and third Billaway 8/1 and Mighty Stowaway 50/1
However, this is a stronger renewal and the horse that sticks out like a sore thumb is the high-class CHRIS’S DREAM 10/1 EW who is the highest-rated runner in the field and has won both starts in this sphere.
He was unlucky a couple of times in the Grand National and really should have too much class for these.
For punters looking for a big-priced outsider, then Not That Fuisse 33/1 looks interesting. Ratings say he cannot win but his late running style will bode well here as they often go too fast early in this race.
16:50 Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares’ Chase) (Grade 2)
The penultimate race of the day is the mares chase which is sponsored by Paddy Power and is a very new addition to the Cheltenham Festival having been run two times.
Trainer Willie Mullins has saddled the winner on both occasions with both horses being the second favourite.
Once we have the final declarations, hopefully, our expert Richard Smith will be able to pinpoint this year’s winner. Until the decs are out, Richard has already analysed the Mares Chase ten-year trends below. So take a look at these, as the trends on winner’s odds might help you pick out a big-price winner.
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Flutter PLC
1988
Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA
10 YEAR RACE TRENDS
As this race has only been run for two years, we have no trend analysis for this race.
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
TRENDS PICK
No trend analysis is available for this race.
FORM PICK
A very tight race based on the ratings and we have six horses all rated between 148 – 151.
The selection is JEREMY’S FLAME 6/1 WIN who has won three of her last four starts, with the only defeat coming against the boys when being well held in the Paddy Rewards Club Chase against the likes of Blue Lord, Chacun Pour Soi and Wednesday’s Champion Chase runner up Captain Guinness.
17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
The final race of the day and the race to close out the 2023 Cheltenham Festival is the race for conditional jockeys and it is the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle named after the legendary champion trainer Martin Pipe.
Pipe now supports his son David who took over the mantle at the Pond House stables and they will certainly be trying their best to win the race.
It’s a highly competitive race, and once declarations have been published on the Wednesday before the race, our expert horse racing tipster Richard Smith will be combing the form with a fine tooth comb to try and bag you the winner.
Our expert has already analysed the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap ten-year trends below. So you can check those out and see if they might help you to build out an initial shortlist of fancies.
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10 YEAR RACE TRENDS
Trying to pick the winner of the “getting out stakes” at The Cheltenham Festival is akin to trying to win the lottery. You first have to look at each horse and make a decision on which ones are the best handicapped, but you also need to take into account the allowances claimed by the conditional jockeys and factor this into your calculations.
Let’s look at some of the trends from the past ten years, and see if they can point you in the direction of the winner.
- Eight of the last ten winners have been five-year-olds (3 wins) or six-year-olds (5 wins).
- Five of the last ten winners had run at least four times during the current season before winning this race.
- In the last ten runnings, not a single favourite has won the race.
- Only two of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse lower than 8/1 in the betting.
- Eight of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse rated between 138 and 145
RACE ANALYSIS & SELECTIONS
TRENDS PICK
The final trends picks will appear here on Wednesday 15th March. Looking at the early entries for the final race of Cheltenham 2023, we have a couple of horses that fit the trends, including Vina Ardanza, and Mark Of Gold.
Vina Ardanza is well out of form so the one that looks the most interesting from the trends perspective is MARK OF GOLD who sauntered home when last seen out at Kempton.
FORM PICK
There is no doubt that Cool Survivor 5/1 deserves to be at the head of the betting here and he holds a very strong chance and looks feasibly handicapped.
However, we like a couple of longshots here and those are Al Fleuron and Innatendue (currently a reserve)
The form of AL FLEURON 25/1 EW stands close inspection. He goes here from a rating of 135 which is 2 lbs lower than when finishing 7th of 23 in this same race last year, and he recently warmed up for this with a nice 4th of 19 at Punchestown. His run style means he needs luck in running but he will undoubtedly be one of those that will be finishing his race off strong and there is no doubt this looks to have been the plan.
The second horse we like is INNATENDUE 66/1 EW (Bigger prices in places). In here off a mark of 125, and that could be lenient. He was second in a Grade 2 novice event back in April of last year and ran well again in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle when runner up again. He has finished reasonably close up in a couple of handicaps in Ireland but the step up in trip could bring about significant improvement and he looks interesting for Tony Martin.
CONCLUSION
Today is all about the Gold Cup and it looks to be a fascinating race and one of the best Gold Cups we have seen for many years. Can A Plus Tard do it again? Could Minella Indo roll back the years and do it again? Or might Galopin Des Champs turn promise into stardom?
Whatever happens, it looks an exciting race.
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