To Be Relegated/To Not Be Relegated Betting Market
In football, the term ‘relegated’ refers to one or more team(s) being demoted to a lower division. Most football seasons in Europe’s most-watched leagues take place over the course of 9 months, with the bottom three sides sliding into the division below at the end of the campaign. In some countries, such as Germany and France, a relegation play-off match is held between a team from the lower division and a side from the higher division to determine who’ll play in which division the following season.
When you bet on markets related to relegation and/or staying up, you’re wagering on which team will be thrown out of the better-placed league and who will maintain their position in the current division. SkyBet describes this type of market as:
- Relegation/To Stay Up – You’re betting on: which team will finish (or out of for ‘To Stay Up’ market) the relegation positions over the course of the league season.
William Hill is another sportsbook that offers ‘Relegation’ markets. There are three in total, many of which can be found on other bookies:
- Relegation – Select a team to be relegated from a given league at the end of the season.
- Relegation Doubles – Select a pair of teams to be relegated from a given league at the end of the season.
- Relegation Trebles – Select three teams to be relegated from a given league at the end of the season.
In addition, William Hill has prices for teams ‘To Stay Up’:
- To Stay Up – Select a team to avoid being relegated at the end of the season.
It should be noted that if any team fails to complete every fixture scheduled, bets on this market will stand anyway.
To Be Relegated/To Not Be Relegated Betting Strategy
At the heart of every bet placed on markets concerning relegation and staying up are transfers. Before each league season, teams around the world are given the opportunity to buy and sell players in an attempt to bolster certain areas of the squad or provide cover in previously-lacking positions.
If a team recruits well, it’s significantly more likely that they’ll stay up. Should a club fail to sign players that will improve the team, the chances of them going down are enhanced. That’s why we recommend keeping an eye on the transfer market throughout the summer and winter windows to see who’s on the up and who’s slipping up.
Let’s use a real-life example from the 2021/2022 Premier League season – Burnley. The Clarets signed Maxwel Cornet from Lyon and Nathan Collins from Stoke City, both of whom are regarded as having a high ceiling. However, the acquisitions of Wayne Hennessey, Aaron Lennon and Connor Roberts in the summer of 2021 failed to materialize into anything particularly helpful in the club’s quest to stay alive in the Premier League. Cornet stood out as a talent, while Collins enjoyed a solid season at centre back.
The team needed to improve in other areas of the field, though. Many players were at the wrong end of 30, had been at the club for a long time under Sean Dyche and motivation to improve was absent.
Moreover, the departure of Chris Wood left a gaping hole in the team’s strikeforce, something left unaddressed until January. Considering Burnley avoided relegation by just one position the season before and didn’t make appropriate additions to the squad to improve the odds of staying up, the writing was more-or-less on the wall prior to the opening game of 2021/22.
What Can We Learn From This Example?
One or two good signings will not save a team that doesn’t fix other glaring issues. Burnley splashed the cash on a striker when it was too late (Wout Weghorst from Wolfsburg, January 2021), leaving them with a massive uphill task to keep their heads above water.
If you spot a team that’s purchased poorly or hasn’t acquired to strengthen weaker positions, that should be a green light to bet on their relegation. This is especially poignant if the team has recently been promoted or finished within 3 spots of the relegation zone the season before.
Norwich City are always a good bet to go back down right after coming up due to the club’s small budget, inability to attract decent signings and the constant yoyo nature of the club between divisions. Instability at a football club will always wreak havoc. This is evidenced by the fact The Canaries were promoted to the Premier League for the 2019/2020 season, relegated immediately, and then came back up again for the 2021/2022 campaign. Dean Smith’s team were sent back to the Championship at the end of 2022/23 after a dismal 9 months in England’s top flight.
Bournemouth and Fulham have had similarly turbulent promotion and relegation stories in recent years, despite spending big on what should have been impressive signings. Nottingham Forest are an unknown to the current crop of teams in the first division of England, but it’s always difficult for a play-off promoted side to keep pace with the rest of the pack. Leeds United and Southampton were terrible towards the back end of 2021/22. Unless something drastic changes at those two clubs, expect them to fight for their Premier League lives all season long.
SkyBet is offering the following odds on some good picks ‘To Be Relegated’ from the Premier League at the end of the 2022/23 season:
SkyBet ‘To Be Relegated’ Odds
- Bournemouth – 1.62 (31/50)
- Fulham – 2.25 (5/4)
- Leeds United – 3.50 (5/2)
- Southampton – 3.75 (11/4)
What To Look Out For – ‘To Stay Up’
Finding good value for a club to stay up can be easy if you know what to look for. Teams that have solid transfer budgets, a clear scouting structure, a fresh mindset with new managers and are backed by owners that have an eye on the club’s future standings should be viewed as good bets to stay up.
There are a few good examples of this in the Premier League:
- Brentford
- Wolves
- Aston Villa
- Brighton
Before the 2021/22 season began, Brentford were a great bet ‘To Stay Up’. They played fantastic football, brought in players that made positive changes to the team and, perhaps most importantly, they had a ‘never-say-die’ attitude.
But what is it that all four of these clubs have in common (for the most part?).
Managers. Brentford (Thomas Frank), Wolves (Bruno Lage), Aston Villa (Steven Gerrard) and Brighton (Graham Potter) all boast talented, ambitious and savvy coaches at the helm. There are examples sprinkled all across the season where each gaffer made a tweak in the system to better the opposition.
And remember when we earlier discussed the importance of looking to the future? None of these managers has hit 50 years old as of the start of the 2021/22 season, meaning they likely haven’t hit their managerial peak.
For the 2022/2023 Premier League season, Bet365 is offering odds on all of these clubs ‘Not To Be Relegated’. The prices are as follows:
Bet365 ‘Not To Be Relegated’ Odds
- Brentford – 1.28 (35/125)
- Wolves – 1.16 (4/25)
- Aston Villa – 1.05 (1/20)
- Brighton – 1.071 (35/500)
