Goals are at the core of football’s heart, beating life into the game. Goals provide supporters with a reason to show up every week, for every scored opportunity adds a little bit of hope that perhaps a trophy, promotion, or safety from relegation is on the cards.
But goals are not guaranteed. Teams that struggle to score goals will inevitably slip down the league standings and suffer elimination from cup competitions. They’ll whimper at the thought of facing a more talented outfit, licking their wounds as they trudge off the pitch to a score of boos and expletives. These teams may appear pathetic on paper, but they’re precisely the kind of team you should bet on when placing a wager on ‘Under 0.5 Goals’ betting markets.
You see, Under 0.5 Goals is a cruel market. It rewards punters for the failure of football teams and punishes bettors when the side has an upturn in form. The way this market works is simple:
Under 0.5 Goals Meaning
Under 0.5 goals is an alternative match goals betting market. Placing a bet on under 0.5 goals will win if the match finishes 0-0. If the match ends with any goals scored, the bet will lose.
- If one or more goals are scored, the bet loses.
- If zero goals are scored, the bet wins.
So you need both competing sides to end the game without a single goal. This is known as a ‘nil-nil’ and reads on the scoreline as ‘0-0’.
This market is technically the same as betting on 0-0 with the correct score football betting market. The opposite selection of this market is betting on over 0.5 goals. The next “under” betting market for goals would be under 1.5 goals. The most popular of the total match goals market is the over 2.5 market.
Plenty of bookmakers offer this market as a betting option. The likes of Paddy Power, SkyBet and William Hill are some of the most popular; providing bettors with ample opportunities to grab a profit from a plethora of fixtures.
SkyBet describes the ‘Under’ goals market as this:
SKy Bet Description
You’re betting on: whether the total number of goals in the match will be above or below the stated total.
In this case, ‘below’ refers to Under 0.5 goals. As it is not possible to score half-goals in football, you must hope that neither team scores a goal for your bet to win. An example of a bet on this market can be found below:
- You bet on ‘Under 0.5 Goals’ in a match between Barcelona and Valencia.
- If either team scores a goal, your bet doesn’t win.
- If both teams fail to score and the match ends 0-0, you win.
Under 0.5 Goals Terminology
In the Under 0.5 Goals betting market, it is not possible to earn a refund or ‘draw’ with the sportsbook. This is because the 0.5 decimal point cuts out any chance of a ‘push’ (where neither the bettor nor bookie wins and your stake is returned) as only ‘whole’ goals can be scored in football. Therefore, there is no situation in which you can exactly match the 0.5 threshold.
To fully understand what it is that you’re betting on, you must come to terms with the terminology associated with this market. Let’s break it down piece by piece.
The market opens with the word ‘Under’. This alerts us to the fact that whatever the threshold for this market is, we must be below it to win. If the statistic in question rises above the number stated, the bet does not payout.
Next is the figure ‘0.5’. Bookmakers set different limits for every bet, and it’s 0.5 in this instance. With this in mind, we know that the stat we’re betting on can only have a maximum of 0.5 occurrences in-game. Any more than 0.5 and the bet doesn’t win. If there are fewer than 0.5, the bet pays out in full.
Lastly, the word ‘Goals’ tells us the exact statistic we’re betting on. Goals are earned when one team strikes the ball past the opposition goal-line, adding one point to the scoreboard. The greater the number of goals scored, the more likely it is the team will win. However, this market requires that a total of zero (0) goals are scored by both teams in the match. Should the affair finish goalless, your punt wins.
All three terms put together form the following phrase:
- Under 0.5 Goals
This means that only games where there are fewer than a half-goal scored will pay out. You can adjust your stake (the amount you’re willing to bet) according to the odds and your perceived likelihood of that outcome taking place.
Strategy & Tips For Under 0.5 Goals Betting
The upside to bets on Under 0.5 Goals is that they are highly rewarding when they come off. The downside is that winning selections can be difficult to find. With 0-0 scorelines virtually impossible to predict, you need to create a plan to give yourself the best possible chance of taking home a win.
1. Pick a League to focus on
Your first port of call is to analyse the number of scoreless draws played out per season in the league you want to bet on. In the Premier League, there are generally 20-25 goalless stalemates (5% – 8% of matches) every year. From 380 fixtures, that leaves 355 that do not finish without a goal (stats courtesy of WinDrawWin.com).
2. Focus On Low Scoring, Mid-Table Teams
Once you decide on a league, it’s time to pick a handful of teams you like the look of. Some teams are poor at scoring goals but concede every week, making them a poor selection for this market. You should avoid relegation fodder for this reason.
A great team to bet on when it comes to the Under 0.5 Goals market is Brighton & Hove Albion.
The Seagulls were highly competitive during 2021/22, managing to grab 9th spot on the table. Graham Potters’ men scored just 43 goals, though, a number that was more in line with the likes of Leeds United (17th), Southampton (15th) and Everton (16th).
The difference between those relegation-battling clubs and Brighton was in the number of goals scored against – and that’s where you need to look.
Brighton conceded 44 times, whereas the other three sides mentioned had a negative goal difference of at least -24. With this information in our pocket, we now know that Brighton were capable of holding teams at bay throughout the season while also struggling to consistently bag goals. Moreover, a whopping 39% of their games ended with the points shared, placing them highest on the ‘Draws’ league table.
By doing the following research:
- Checking which teams draw the most.
- Comparing the number of goals scored for and against.
- Examining recent results.
We found that Brighton are the perfect candidate for this type of bet. It’s worth noting that a total of four draws were accumulated by Brighton during the 2021/22 campaign; twice against Norwich City, one versus Leeds United and one more when welcoming Arsenal. It may not sound like many draws were accrued, but those four goalless stalemates made up 18% of the absolute number of draws in the league for that season.
3. Use Statistics Sites To Analyse Fixtures
You can use sites like:
- FotMob app
To find important, relevant statistics concerning the team you want to bet on. This is just an example strategy guide to give you an idea of what to expect when carrying out a study.
Best Bookies & Odds For Under 0.5 Goals Bets
Every sports betting site has its own reasons for calculating particular odds on its available selections. The algorithms will never be made public, but you can shop around to try and find the best odds for the bet you want to make.
The best bookmakers for Under 0.5 Goals betting are the ones that offer such selections. Many betting platforms stick to basic offerings, like ‘To Win’, ‘Shots’ and ‘Cards’, thus leaving out more difficult markets like this one.
How We Chose These Betting Sites
We chose bookies that:
- Offered the under 0.5 goals market
- Had the highest odds for this market
- Made it easy to find the market
Upon looking at our favourite bookies, we came up with the following list of bookmakers we’d recommend for the Under 0.5 Goals betting market:
- William Hill
- Paddy Power
In terms of which bookie offers the best odds for this market, we can only take into account what we currently know. The betting industry is constantly evolving, so there is no clear winner. That said, we can show you which bookmaker has the most rewarding odds for a certain selection to provide you with a glimpse as to how they compare with one another.
The game is Manchester United vs Liverpool on August 22nd, 2022. Each bookmaker is offering odds on Under 0.5 Goals, and nearly all with a unique price listing.
1. SkyBet – Under 0.5 Goals at 26.00 (25/1)
2. William Hill – Under 0.5 Goals at 13.00 (12/1)
3. Paddy Power – Under 0.5 Goals at 13.00 (12/1)
4. Betfair – Under 0.5 Goals at 15.00 (14/1)
As you can see, SkyBet pays out the most by a significant margin. A £10 punt on Under 0.5 Goals rewards £260 at that bookie, whereas all others fail to pay more than £150. The winner here is obvious, but that’s not to say the best choice won’t fluctuate in prices on other matches in this market.